U.S. October Home Resales Fall

[MichaelC 160]

October, 2008, Home Resales In Record Fall

 

Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Home resales in the U.S. dropped in October and prices fell by the most on record, signaling a deepening housing recession going into 2009.

Purchases of existing homes declined 3.1 percent last month to an annual rate of 4.98 million units, less than forecast, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price fell 11.3 percent to $183,300 from a year earlier, the largest year-over-year decrease since records started in 1968.

Mounting foreclosures are pushing down home prices and adding to the inventory of unsold houses. Sales may slump further as the worst credit crisis in seven decades makes banks reluctant to offer mortgages.

“Underlying demand appears very weak; it seems many sales are coming from cheap prices on foreclosed properties,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, whose firm’s forecast of a 4.97 million sales pace was the closest in a Bloomberg survey of 67 economists. “Home sales will continue to fall over the next few months because of tightening credit conditions.”

Resales were forecast to fall to an annual rate of 5 million, according to the median estimate in the Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from 4.5 million to 5.2 million.

Sales dropped 1.6 percent compared with a year earlier. Resales totaled 5.65 million in 2007.

Today’s figures compare with the 4.86 million level reached in June, the lowest in a decade and 33 percent below the record reached in September 2005. Resales have fluctuated around a 4.96 million rate this year.

The number of previously owned unsold homes on the market at the end of October represented 10.2 months’ at the current sales pace, up from 10 months’ at the end of the prior month.

“The large number of homes already on the market and the number of those that will appear via foreclosure over the next several months only add to the diminished prospects for existing home sales,” Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal in New York, said before the report.

The median price of an existing home was the lowest since March 2004. Prices fell in all regions of the country, led by the West. Falling home prices make it harder to refinance mortgages and have pushed foreclosure filings up 25 percent in October from a year ago, according to RealtyTrac Inc., the Irvine-California-based seller of default data.

Resales account for about 90 percent of the market, while purchases of new homes make up the rest. Sales of existing homes are compiled from contract closings and may reflect contracts signed one or two months earlier.

Today’s report showed resales of single-family homes fell 3.3 percent to an annual rate of 4.43 million. Sales of condos and co-ops declined 1.8 percent to a 550,000 rate.

 

Purchases declined from the previous month in all regions, led by a drop of 6 percent in the Midwest. Sales fell 1.2 percent in the Northeast, 3.2 percent in the South and 1.6 percent in the West. Compared with a year earlier, sales jumped 37.5 percent in the West, while declining in other regions.

“Markets where prices have plunged, the buyers are coming back and taking advantage,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors group, said at a press conference.

Home sales overall may be weighed down by a federal law that took effect Oct. 1 barring home sellers from providing down-payment assistance to purchasers.

Builders are scaling back residential projects as home sales decline. Construction of new homes plummeted 65 percent through October from a peak in January 2006. The number of building permits issued last month fell to the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1960, a sign that declines in construction will continue to hurt the economy.

Companies are struggling to improve sales alongside a rise in foreclosures. Stuart Miller, chief executive officer of Lennar Corp., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder, said the housing market “continues to decline.”

“Clearly the market is weak,” Miller said in comments broadcast from a Nov. 11 UBS conference in New York. “Clearly the supply side of the homebuilding world is dominated by the foreclosures that are coming in faster and more furiously than in the past.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 24, 2008 10:21 EST

[rbaras 0]

Today I got an article from the major local Association of Realtors of Washington DC. The article stated that 2008 will be known as the year of the turnaround - where the bad real estate market started to turn into a very good one. Wow! I'm not going to post the article here. How sad that people can delude themselves. I still see articles that mention that conditions are ripe for a quick turnaround of the economy in just a few months from now. It kind of reminds me of the articles I read several years ago that stated that real estate will continue to increase 20% or more per year forever due to unprecedented economic conditions ...

[Doug Pretorius (ON) 9]

What's truly amazing to me is that the Canadian market is being hit nearly as hard on prices (October was down 10% from a year ago) and even worse on sales (Toronto is 35% from a year ago!) and yet somehow the Canadian market is not perceived to be in as bad shape.

[West Coast Girl 1]

Today I got an article from the major local Association of Realtors of Washington DC. The article stated that 2008 will be known as the year of the turnaround - where the bad real estate market started to turn into a very good one. Wow! I'm not going to post the article here. How sad that people can delude themselves. I still see articles that mention that conditions are ripe for a quick turnaround of the economy in just a few months from now. It kind of reminds me of the articles I read several years ago that stated that real estate will continue to increase 20% or more per year forever due to unprecedented economic conditions ...

 

Dougie,

 

Two Words for ya. Harper Baby!

 

Actually, JUST before he was re- elected (and actually what he said during his campaign) he said that our economy was in good shape!

 

NOW, that he's been re-elected as Prime Minister, he's now saying that we are in a recession/depression! WTF???

 

I'll find that thread and post it here!

 

WCG

[MichaelC 160]

“Markets where prices have plunged, the buyers are coming back and taking advantage,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors group, said at a press conference.

I must admit to getting a chuckle out of good ol' Lawrence Yun. No matter what the numbers say, no matter what the market is doing, it's always a great time to be a Realtor selling houses.

 

As for the US markets, fear not, fellow Americans. With the recent election of The Anointed One, come January 20, 2009, all will once again be sunshine and lollipops. Too bad for you Canucks. He's ours, and we ain't sharing!

[James-Ct 0]

With tens of thousands of layoffs in the works now, I cannot see how home sales will increase anytime soon. Just the opposite, sales will decline further as more foreclosures happen.

I'm not complaining though since REOs will provide even greater REI opportunities by mid 2009 when bungled government meddling in mortgage markets start coming under greater criticism from some politicians and watchdog groups because they won't be solving anything but only wasting taxpayer $.

The recent appointments by "The One" of Clinton retreads and his affiliation with some of the architects of the current financial crisis (ex. R. Rubin) will prolong the recovery process while the LaLa land crowd swoons over his handling of the mess.

I believe this will offer an extended time frame of REI opportunuties. We must be in heaven!

James-Ct

[MichaelC 160]

Good analysis, James, and I agree. This mess is far from over.